AI Boom Fuels Global Growth but Puts Millions of Jobs in Transition, IMF Warns

BANGKOK, October 12, 2026 — Strong investment in artificial intelligence is helping sustain global economic growth at around 3%, but the technology could significantly reshape employment, education and government revenue systems, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivered the warning on Monday as policymakers gathered in Bangkok for the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. The discussions come as governments seek to benefit from rapid technological advances while managing economic uncertainty and energy supply pressures.

AI Investment Supports Economic Growth

According to Reuters, Georgieva said the AI infrastructure boom was generating a substantial increase in investment and demand, helping support economic activity despite broader challenges.

The IMF had forecast global growth of 3% for 2026 in July, with an updated economic outlook expected on Tuesday, October 13.

Asia is positioned to benefit significantly from the investment cycle. Georgieva said advanced Asian economies could see growth boosted by approximately 0.5 to 1 percentage point, while emerging Asian economies could receive a boost of 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point.

These potential gains reflect the region's role in supplying the hardware, manufacturing capacity and other infrastructure required to develop and operate AI systems.

However, the economic benefits will depend on how effectively countries convert investment into productivity, sustainable business activity and opportunities for workers.

Millions of Workers Could Face Changing Job Requirements

The IMF's warning extends beyond economic growth. Georgieva said IMF research indicates that around 40% of jobs globally could be augmented, downgraded or eliminated by AI. The proportion could reach 60% in advanced economies.

These figures do not mean that all affected positions will disappear. Some jobs may become more productive through AI assistance, while others could require different skills or face reduced demand.

The distinction is important because AI can change the tasks performed within an occupation without necessarily eliminating the entire role.

Nevertheless, workers whose responsibilities involve routine or repetitive tasks may face greater pressure to adapt. Employers could increasingly seek people who can combine professional knowledge with the ability to use AI tools effectively.

The transition could be particularly difficult for workers who have limited access to training or who cannot easily move into new occupations.

Entry-Level Jobs Become a Growing Concern

Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the same gathering, highlighted concerns about declining demand for graduates entering the labour market.

Entry-level positions traditionally allow young workers to gain experience, develop professional skills and progress into more senior roles. If AI systems take over some of these initial tasks, graduates could face greater difficulty securing their first jobs.

This creates a potential challenge for employers and education systems. Organisations may need to rethink how they train junior staff, while universities and vocational institutions could place greater emphasis on practical experience, critical thinking and AI literacy.

The longer-term question is whether AI will create enough new opportunities to offset the jobs and tasks it changes.

Developing Economies Face Both Risks and Opportunities

The AI transition may affect countries differently.

Advanced economies are investing heavily in the development of large AI models and supporting infrastructure. Developing economies, meanwhile, may be able to adopt smaller and more targeted applications without bearing the full cost of building large-scale systems.

World Bank President Ajay Banga said the bank was focusing on practical AI applications that could improve productivity in areas such as agriculture, healthcare and education.

For farmers, AI tools could help interpret agricultural information. Healthcare facilities could use suitable applications to support administrative and clinical workflows, while teachers could gain assistance with lesson preparation and educational resources.

Such uses could help emerging economies improve services and productivity, provided that the technology is affordable, reliable and accessible.

However, unequal access to computing infrastructure, digital skills and investment could widen existing differences between countries. Policymakers will need to consider how to distribute the benefits more broadly.

Education and Tax Systems May Need to Adapt

The potential disruption extends to public policy.

If AI increases productivity while reducing demand for certain types of labour, governments may need to reconsider how education and training systems prepare people for work.

Tax systems could also face pressure if economic activity shifts towards capital-intensive production and away from traditional labour income. Governments that rely heavily on taxes linked to wages and employment may need to examine whether existing arrangements remain adequate.

These changes are unlikely to happen uniformly. Their scale will depend on the speed of AI adoption, the types of tasks affected and the policies governments introduce.

The IMF's warning therefore points to a transition that requires planning rather than a single prediction about the future of work.

Balancing Innovation With Inclusive Growth

The central challenge for policymakers is to capture the productivity benefits of AI while limiting avoidable harm to workers and communities.

That could involve improving access to retraining, strengthening digital education, supporting workers moving between occupations and encouraging businesses to use AI in ways that complement human capabilities.

Companies will also face decisions about how to integrate AI into existing teams. Productivity gains may be greater when technology supports employees' judgement and expertise rather than simply replacing established tasks.

For developing economies, targeted applications could offer a route to better services and improved productivity without requiring every country to compete in the most expensive areas of AI development.

What Comes Next?

The IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok are bringing these questions into the centre of international economic discussions. The IMF's updated growth outlook, expected on October 13, will provide a further assessment of the global economy.

For workers, businesses and governments, the key issue is how quickly the benefits of AI can be translated into broad-based economic opportunity.

AI investment is already influencing global growth. Whether that momentum produces more inclusive prosperity will depend on how economies prepare their workers, adapt their institutions and manage the transition.

EIB NEWS will continue to follow major developments in AI, global markets and the future of employment.

IMF Warns AI Boom Could Disrupt Jobs as Global Growth Holds Near 3%